델파이 기법

(출처 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi)

• 정의
• 전문가들의 의견수립, 중재, 타협의 방식으로 반복적인 피드백을 통한 하향식 의견 도출 방법으로 문제를 해결하는 기법으로 1948년 미국의 RAND연구소에서 개발되어 IT분야, 연구개발분야, 교육분야, 군사분야 등에서 활용되고 있다.

• 주요 특징
• 델파이 기법은 어떠한 문제에 관하여 전문가들의 견해를 유도하고 종합하여 집단적 판단으로 정리하는 일련의 절차라고 정의할 수 있다.이것은 추정하려는 문제에 관한 정확한 정보가 없을 때에 "두 사람의 의견이 한 사람의 의견보다 정확하다"는 계량적 객관의 원리와 "다수의 판단이 소수의 판단보다 정확하다"는 민주적 의사결정 원리에 논리적 근거를 두고 있다. 또한 전문가들이 직접모이지 않고 주로 우편이나 전자 메일을 통한 통신수단으로 의견을 수렴하여 돌출된 의견을 내놓는다는것이 주된 특징이라 할 수 있다.

• 수행 절차
• 초기계획수립: 측정대상 전제조건 확인, 전문가 섭외, 역할배정
• 산정: 전문가 각자의 경험지식 기반 산정
• 합의도출: 의견조정작업, 합의도출, 중재, 반복수행
• 정리 및 기록: 합의결과 정리, 산정치 결정, 전제조건 정의

(출처 : http://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/델파이_기법)

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History[edit]

The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult".^{[citation needed]} The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.
(여러 사람의 의견이 한 사람의 의견보다 더 타당(valid)하다는 가정에 근거함)

The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare.^[8] In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.^[9] It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphi procedure.

Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.

Key characteristics[edit]

The Delphi Method communication structure

The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies:

주요한 특징

 - 참여자의 익명성

 - 정보 흐름의 구조화

 - 주기적 피드백

 - 촉진자(facilitator)의 역할

Anonymity of the participants[edit]

Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even after the completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it also frees participants (to some extent) from their personal biases, minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect", allows free expression of opinions, encourages open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.

Structuring of information flow[edit]

The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

Regular feedback[edit]

Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements (언제든 앞에서 자신이 제시한 의견의 수정이 가능하다). While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to the group leader; the Delphi method prevents it.

Role of the facilitator 
[edit]

The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as a facilitator or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.

(출처 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method)

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DELPHI

Delphi (/ˈdɛlfaɪ/ or /ˈdɛlfi/; Greek: Δελφοί, [ðelˈfi])^[1] is both an archaeological site and a modern town in Greece on the south-western spur of Mount Parnassus in the valley of Phocis.

Delphi was the site of the Delphic oracle, the most important oracle in the classical Greek world, and became a major site for the worship of the god Apollo after he slew Python, a dragon who lived there and protected the navel of the Earth. Python (derived from the verb pythein, "to rot") is claimed by some to be the original name of the site in recognition of Python which Apollo defeated.^[2] The Homeric Hymn to Delphic Apollo recalled that the ancient name of this site had been Krisa.^[3]

Apollo's sacred precinct in Delphi was a panhellenic sanctuary, where every four years, starting in 586 BC^[4] athletes from all over the Greek world competed in the Pythian Games, one of the four panhellenic (or stephanitic) games, precursors of the Modern Olympics. The victors at Delphi were presented with a laurel crown (stephanos) which was ceremonially cut from a tree by a boy who re-enacted the slaying of the Python.^[4] Delphi was set apart from the other games sites because it hosted the mousikos agon, musical competitions.^[2]

These Pythian Games rank second among the four stephanitic games chronologically and based on importance.^[4] These games, though, were different from the games at Olympia in that they were not of such vast importance to the city of Delphi as the games at Olympia were to the area surrounding Olympia. Delphi would have been a renowned city whether or not it hosted these games; it had other attractions that led to it being labeled the "omphalos" (navel) of the earth, in other words, the center of the world.^[5]

In the inner hestia ("hearth") of the Temple of Apollo, an eternal flame burned. After the battle of Plataea, the Greek cities extinguished their fires and brought new fire from the hearth of Greece, at Delphi; in the foundation stories of several Greek colonies, the founding colonists were first dedicated at Delphi.^[6]

(출처 : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi)